How accurate are the Superforecasters?

A post-mortem exercise is a key step in the Superforecasting process. For every forecast we make, we keep score so we can learn and improve. As an example, we compare the Superforecasters’ track record in forecasting inflection points in the Fed’s policy with futures markets. (Superforecasters were 66% more accurate than the futures.) We look back at Superforecasters’ performance in forecasting the reopening in the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic. (Superforecasters offered valuable early signal where others failed.) Because we take accountability in forecasting seriously, we’re also sharing our post-mortem for the question whether Russia would invade Ukraine and present lessons learned.